February 19, 2016

FAQ

Q: What is your track record?
A:  Here is a link to SmashTrades Swing Trading Track Record for major ETF trades.

Q: How come you are not a professional money manager?
A: I’m an independent person.  I love trading the way I want, and not encumbered by others’ ideals of what I should be doing.  I also don’t know the first thing about becoming a professional money manager.  I assume it would mean studying a bunch of stuff I already know to get a bunch of certificates proving it.

Q: What do you trade and how many positions do you hold at a time?
A: I swing trade PHYS, TLT, QQQ, and DVY.  They’re all very liquid instruments that are less prone to dramatic changes reducing unexpected risks.

Q: How often do you trade?
A: Obviously, it varies based on the opportunities presented by the market.  Typically, one to two trades a month.  But with my information, one could trade more frequently if they desired.

Q: Do you use stop-loss orders?
A: Stop-loss orders are a must for new traders or those with busy lives.  I follow the market every day.  In the event, my original reason for making the trade is no longer valid, the position must be cut to reduce capital loss.  Capital preservation is more important than return.

Q: Why don’t you use options?
A: Getting the market’s direction right is challenging enough.  Options have time variables and very specific price targets.  With options, you could be right in the market going up, but just not enough which then leaves you with nothing.  Options are higher reward but also higher risk.  We want to reduce our exposure to 100% losses.  Most options expire out of the money.

Q: How long have you been doing this?
A: I’ve been trading for over a decade.  I started the free blog in 2009.  I continued for free until 2016 when I realized how truly valuable our proprietary stock market indicators are for making low-risk trading decisions.

Q: If you are a successful investor, why do you charge a subscription fee?
A:  I enjoy sharing ideas with people for free.  Especially if people find my ideas valuable.  However, there are only so many “overbought” or “oversold” situations in a lifetime.  I’m doing this to be right, and also to make money.  Because I’m still interested in sharing my ideas, that is why some of my content is available for free. But for traders that want more actionable content, it is reasonable to charge those who profit from my ideas. I use the subscription revenue to cover the site’s hosting fees, my data sources, and my time writing and developing algorithms.

Q: How you ever lost a large amount of money trading?
A: Definitely.  In 2011, I had 40% return making about $38K trading.  Unfortunately, from 2011 to 2015, I was stuck in bad positions because I quit following my rules.  At one time I was down $70K in paper losses, but stuck by my positions waiting for them to start selling off again.  I knew eventually there would be ‘reversion to the mean’ for my long term indicator making a lot of those losses turn back around.  In late 2015 and early 2016, the paper losses were dramatically reduced.  This very painful four-year lesson has made me a better trader that more rigorously sticks to rules to avoid similar losses.  Being mechanistic takes emotion out of the game as much as possible which helps to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the trade.

Q: What is your cancellation policy?
A: Trial subscribers can cancel any time during the 30-day trial period without charge. After the 30-day trial period’s expiration date, subscription charges will be incurred.  Monthly members can cancel at any time, and will be given a pro-rated refund for the current month.  Yearly and Bi-Yearly subscribers can cancel at any time, and will receive a pro-rated refund subtracting the monthly rate for the months in which you were a member.

Q: What are the problems with your indicators?
A: I’m not going to say our indicators are infallible.  They are not nearly as good at identifying tops as they are at bottoms.  Bottoms are typically black and white due to the extreme amount of fear reached at bottoms.  These serve to shake out all weak hands, and create a foundation for a tradeable bottom.  Tops typically take time to develop.  A failed confirmation of an ensuing peak in any of my timeframe indicators shows underlying weakness and could lead to a tradeable top for short selling.  It’s not perfect, but buying oversold and selling overbought gets 80% of the move.  That’s good enough for me.  The remaining 20% requires fortitude as tops frequently sell off slightly then become even more overbought before they become weak and fail to confirm which would then give us a more reliable sell signal.  If you need us to explain this concept with actual examples from our indicators, please contact us.